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Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices (Center on Global Energy Policy Series), by Robert McNally
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Review
Robert McNally has written an excellent biography of a world-famous character, known for volatility and violent mood swings, sometimes reviled but always a player in the world economy and politics―the oil price. Insightful and timely, Crude Volatility explores the clash over many decades between "boom and bust" prices and the efforts to harness them. In the current market, McNally explains why volatility is likely to win out over stability―highly significant for what will remain the world's most important commodity for many years to come. (Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize and The Quest and Vice Chairman of IHS Markit)Pioneer's strong balance sheet and successful hedging program―before and since the latest price bust―depended largely on McNally's sound advice and his outstanding grasp of oil market dynamics and OPEC. This same expertise is on display in his lively book, which will help any reader understand the history of oil markets, and how we got to where we are today. (Scott Sheffield, CEO, Pioneer Natural Resources)This is an important book. Bob McNally is the first to place shale oil in its proper historical context and explain the ramifications. His conclusions have profound implications for policymakers and the market. It would be unwise to venture out into this new and more volatile oil market without using McNally as your guide. (Paul Horsnell, Global Head of Commodities at Standard Chartered)This completely fresh viewpoint from Robert McNally is a must read for anyone involved in the oil market. The historical perspective provided in Crude Volatility is critical to understanding the future of prices and the impact they will have on the geopolitical order in years to come. Buckle up for a wild ride! (Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the Robin Hood Foundation)Splendid... McNally is both a skillful historian and an astute analyst... for readers who do not have the time to tackle Daniel Yergin's 900-page standard-bearer, The Prize (1990), Crude Volatility is a concise alternative for understanding the grand narrative of oil. (R. Tyler Priest Wall Street Journal)[McNally] deftly explains the motivation behind attempts to temper oil market swings. . . . McNally uses history and two new oil data sets - on prices and global spare capacity - to explain that the greater the market imbalance, the wider the potential price swings, which in itself reinforces greater supply fluctuations. (Anjli Raval Financial Times)The most comprehensive treatment of concerted attempts to stabilize oil prices...Recommended. (Choice)If you're an investor in the sector, a policy-maker or diplomat, or you just want a heads up about the next threats facing the global economy, read it. (Petroleum Economist)[McNally] paints a compelling picture of the colorful history of the global oil industry . . . of interest and pertinence to nearly every energy economist (and many macroeconomists). . . . Well-researched and documented. (Energy Journal)
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About the Author
Robert McNally is the founder and president of The Rapidan Group, a leading energy consulting firm, and a nonresident fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy. From 2001 to 2003, he served as the top international and domestic energy adviser on the White House staff.
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Product details
Series: Center on Global Energy Policy Series
Paperback: 336 pages
Publisher: Columbia University Press; Reprint edition (July 16, 2019)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0231178158
ISBN-13: 978-0231178150
Product Dimensions:
6 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.6 out of 5 stars
20 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#4,003,434 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
This is an excellent overview of the oil market cycles. McNally goes through significant history and technical details about the petroleum industry while retaining what I would consider a journalistic style. He also is even handed when addressing various controversial theories such as 'peak oil', or the role of OPEC and the US shale industry in the most recent glut. In addition, his smooth and accessible writing style makes for an enjoyable read. He has studied the topic deeply. I was pleased to read his logical analysis of supply and demand, and how the lags in increasing and decreasing production inside the oil industry lead to the inevitable booms and busts that we have seen. The book was written with care, and the graphs and charts inside support the findings well. I recommend this book highly if you would like to understand what has happened in the oil market, why, and what it means for the market in the years to come.
Crude Volatility gives an overview of the global oil market and its dynamics with a focus on the US. The author discusses the nature of oil as a heavy fixed investment businesses with negligible marginal costs of production. In particular he discusses the boom bust cycles witnessed by the industry as a pure manifestation of volatile inelastic supply with inelastic demand. Crude volatility gives the history of oil investment and regulation in the US as well as the world more recently with the rise of OPEC and the author argues that the level of coordination of oil supply has major implications for oil price volatility and today's regime is no different than periods in the past, other than of course the supply side dynamics have changed.The author gives a history of oil exploration and investment in the US from the 19th century onwards. Clearly the nature of investment was very different in scale in the 19th century with simple wells and basic onshore drilling techniques being used to exploit close to surface resources. But the quickly growing demand with inelastic was used to frame how prices moved sharply as oil became a staple commodity demanded with supply lagging demand increases. Such continual dynamics led to short cycles of boom and bust in the industry with price per barrel moving by orders of magnitude over the course of a year or less. The author discusses how the consolidation of the industry from Rockefeller led to stability and how such stability actually encouraged long term investment. The author also spends time on the unique situation of the texas era where investment was effectively legislated to contain the investment cycles for the benefit of all parties.The author then details the history of OPEC and its growing importance as US supply became more constrained to grow. The history of global oil companies and their JV arrangements with local governments and the revenue share agreements is discussed to frame the early capex in places like the middle east. The author discusses how the political power shifted and how it eventually led to a nationalization of many oil resources which subsequently led to more frictions and eventually the oil shocks in the 70s. The author then goes into how the economic environment and the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a collapse in oil in the 80s and how with low prices the industry consolidated in the 90s to maintain efficiency. Again the reader is given a sense of how the boom bust cycles in the industry are an inevitable consequence of the inelastic nature of supply and demand. The author finally gets to the modern era and discusses the shale revolution and how to think about its impact. The author discusses how the nature of supply has become much more diversified and as a consequence this will impact oil volatility for the worse as when prices are low, production will continue as the diverse supply group needs to generate cash flows.Crude Volatility gives a readable overview of the history of oil industry dynamics and its impact on oil volatility. The author argues that the industry needs to be consolidated or legislated to invest effectively and in the absence of those conditions the volatility of prices is inescapable to the detriment of many parties. The arguments are clear and are applicable to any heavy investment low marginal cost industries, but the case history of oil to make the arguments comes across clearly. Whether dynamics of the future will echo the past remains to be seen but one shouldn't be surprised to see more volatility on oil prices given the fragmented supply we currently see,
A much-needed account of the history of oil price volatility. Anybody assuming that the oil market is driven by Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" is in for a rude awakening. Throughout its history, the oil market has been manipulated. The author makes a good case that such manipulation - resulting in relative price stability - is generally (although not always) a public welfare. The rise and fall of the various manipulating/stabilising protagonists over time is clearly delineated,as is the prospect for significantly reduced price stability in the period ahead. I had always assumed that shale oil would be a natural swing supply, but the author debunks that clinically. If I had to pick a complaint it is that the perspective is too much from the US point of view. The various forces in action in the other producer countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are skipped over a little bit. One big question in my mind is why, in a era of very low oil prices, would Saudi Arabia continue to produce at such high volume? The "bust" period is likely to be followed by "boom" and if the Saudis need immediate cash for their public expenditure, they can issue Shariah-compliant instruments, secured on the oil in the ground, on very favourable terms. But I have no hesitation in giving this 5 stars. It contains valuable insight in a very readable form.
Any novice to the oil business (meaning you are not employed in the business) who wants to understand why oil prices and oil producers act the way they do; what policies are appropriate for use drilling, refining and consumption of oil; and what the heck is happening with oil today and going forward should read this book. This book is never too technical or dry, but is sophisticated enough in its facts, figures and analysis that you feel as if you have learned some important insights into oil and the broader world.This book has history; economics; public policy; and every ever intellectual approach to the understanding of oil.
Robert did a wonderful job in showing and explaining how oil prices worked from the start of the industry to date. He provided an interesting analysis of the relationship between some form of oil market regulation/coordination (whether via Rockefeller controlling the downstream and transportation which resulted in putting some leash on prices, or via the Texas Railroad Commission acting as a regulator and bridge between supply and demand, or OPEC's attempts at price stability). He summarised the problem of the oil price volatile gyrations as one related to price Inelasticity of both supply and demand, and goes about explaining how. Being part of the oil industry for the past 18 years, I found Robert's book very enlightening and beleive its a must have in every industry member library as, afterall, what's more determinental to the industry's future other that oil prices!
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